Swapping a fifth of the world’s meat consumption for meat-free alternatives made in factories would more than halve global deforestation and related carbon emissions, a group of researchers has found.
Cattle ranches and crops grown to feed cows are two of the biggest drivers of forests being cleared across the tropics, which is continuing despite political pledges to curb the loss of carbon-rich, biodiverse habitats.
Microbial proteins, such as the Quorn mycoprotein made from a fungus and sugar in heated vessels, to have a lower environmental impact than meat from ruminants such as cows and sheep. But their future potential – as populations grow, food demand rises and diets shift – hasn’t been fully explored.
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To fill the gap, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and his colleagues modelled what would happen in three scenarios, where 20, 50 and 80 per cent of ruminant meat consumption per person was substituted for microbial proteins by 2050. The impact was surprisingly strong, says Humpenöder. The 20 per cent scenario would cut deforestation rates from 8.4 million hectares annually compared with business continuing as usual, to 3.7 million hectares. Net CO2 emissions would fall from 5.5 billion tonnes in 2050 to 2.4 billion.
“It’s not a silver bullet, not the single solution to the climate or biodiversity crisis. But I really think it can be a part of the solution,” says Humpenöder. Unlike alternatives such as cultured meat, the technology for making microbial proteins is already mature. More plant-based diets are another option to reduce emissions.
While a shift to microbial proteins still needs land to grow sugar, Humpenöder says that producing more food in factories could also be seen as a form of climate adaptation because of the impact that extreme weather events are having on crops. India’s recent heatwave damaged wheat harvests.
However, the study doesn’t consider social attitudes – for instance, whether people would be willing to swap 20 to 80 per cent of their meat for something like Quorn. Nor does it count the emissions from the energy used to power the factories to make it.
at University of Helsinki, Finland, says the research highlights possible “low-hanging fruit” for curbing the environmental impact of diets. But she says the substitution might not be entirely like-for-like on a nutritional basis, because some microbial protein – unlike meat – may not have zinc and iron that can be as easily absorbed by our bodies.
“What happens to the farm sector?” asks at City, University of London. He says the study is impressive but adds that it is important to consider societal and economic factors, not just environmental ones.
Nature
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