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AS REBEL forces entered Tripoli on Monday, crude oil prices fell on the expectation that Libya’s six-month civil war would soon come to an end and the country would resume supplying oil to the global market. But they .

The rapid fluctuations are down to market speculation; even if exports did resume immediately – an unlikely prospect – this would have little impact on the amount of oil moving through international markets.

“The situation on the ground is so uncertain, it’s very difficult to come to any view,” says of London think-tank Chatham House. What is clear is that Libya accounts for about 2 per cent of the global oil market, having exported . Exports have fallen sharply during the on-going conflict.

The loss of supply could be made up twice over by the , which between them have 4 million barrels of spare capacity per day. But it isn’t that simple: Libyan oil is suitable for making gasoline, while Gulf state oil is better for diesel and fuel oil.

Regardless, “what happens in Iraq is probably more important than what happens in Libya” for future oil prices, says David Aron of based in London. Already a bigger producer than Libya – it produced 2.4 million barrels a day in 2009 – it is and hopes to .

When this article was first posted, the words “a day” were omitted from the final paragraph