MUCH of science depends on being in the right place at the right time. Isaac Newton could never have come up with the general theory of relativity, because he lacked the observational evidence about the nature of light on which Albert Einstein drew. But, as the mathematical physicist Paul Dirac pointed out, in the 1920s the new quantum theory made it easy even for second-rate physicists to solve long-standing puzzles.
The same is true in meteorology. It helps to be good at the job, but without the right tools and information, it is hard to make progress. Take El Niño…
