Attacks on container ships in the Red Sea have forced hundreds of ships carrying billions of dollars’ worth of cargo to avoid the region and the shortcut to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, resulting in global increases in inflation and carbon emissions – and much of this disruption comes down to mass-produced, explosive drones made for relatively low cost.
Since October 2023, Houthi forces based in Yemen have launched more than on US Navy warships and commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea and nearby waters – including the largest attack yet involving 18 drones and three missiles aimed towards shipping lanes on 9 January. The Houthi rebels have stated their support for the Palestinian governing organisation, Hamas, and the attacks have coincided with the Israel-Hamas war. Houthi forces have targeted ships with Iranian-made weapons that include dozens of one-way attack drones costing between $2000 and $20,000 each, along with more expensive cruise and ballistic missiles.
“It’s not that the technology is new – people are surprised by the fact that it’s being used against shipping and the potential impact on supply chains,” says at the RAND Corporation, a think tank in California.
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These one-way attack drones, also known as kamikaze or suicide drones, are being developed or deployed by governments and organisations in more than 30 countries. But since 2014, low-cost, Iranian-made drones in particular have appeared in a growing number of conflicts across the Middle East and in the hands of Russian military forces targeting Ukrainian cities. Now they are menacing international shipping lanes.
The number of large cargo-carrying ships in the Red Sea has fallen from a daily average of about 400 vessels in early December to under 300 ships at the start of January, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime data firm based in London. Many ships now sail around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope on extended voyages that take two to four weeks longer than going through the Suez Canal. These trips can cost an , along with emitting each way, according to a Danish freight analytics company.
The threat of attack has spurred a doubling of container shipping prices between Europe and Asia and a 122 per cent rise in Drewery’s – which tracks the price of moving containers across seven major shipping lanes – between late November 2023 and mid-January 2024.
It is tough to say just how much inflation this may trigger, but it is likely to create at least some. A 2022 study by the showed that historically, a doubling of shipping rates is associated with a 0.7 percentage point increase in inflation that can last up to 18 months.
Martin says the good news is that Houthi forces “firing small drones at great big container ships” have done minimal damage so far, even if drones combined with an anti-ship missile could pose bigger dangers. But it shows how disruption of global shipping “can be done for a relatively small amount of money without a whole lot of risk and effort”, he says.
The US Navy and other naval forces have shot down many incoming Houthi drones and missiles by using missile interceptors costing more than $1 million each. That cost imbalance makes sense when “defending a ship worth $100 million that is carrying half a billion dollars’ worth of cargo”, says at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington DC.
But the drone attacks pose a long-term problem, as they can quickly exhaust a warship’s arsenal of air defence missiles, says Jones. He says that could lead to more reliance on close-range defence, such as automated Gatling guns, and could perhaps spur faster development of energy-based weapons such as lasers that can dazzle drone sensors or even shoot down targets as long as the ship has the power.
The Houthis also already attempted one attack on US Navy and commercial ships using an explosive robotic boat. Many countries are currently developing underwater drones that could similarly be used to attack ships either at sea or in port, says Jones.
US and UK warships and aircraft struck back starting on 11 January by targeting Houthi missile and drone capabilities on the ground. But “looking for mobile launchers is very difficult and its military effect may be limited,” says at the RAND Corporation.
In the long run, the Red Sea attacks represent part of a “dramatic technological change” where “you can gain sea control by not using traditional forms of naval power”, says Wilson. These attacks – along with Ukraine’s successful drone attacks on Russian warships – mark a sea change in how traditional navies must think about defending themselves as well as the shipping lanes vital to the global economy in the drone warfare era.
