Will 2023 mark the arrival of the climate apocalypse – and with it, a call to action? With extreme events and record-breaking temperatures across the world, there is certainly a “pervasive sense of doom” among the general public, says at the University of Pennsylvania. “There is understandable worry over whether it’s too late, whether we’ve crossed some tipping point.”
The answer to that is complex, but as the emerging El Niño climate pattern builds in strength towards the end of the year, researchers agree that further climate records are likely to tumble.
“What’s interesting is that 2024 is actually shaping up to be warmer than 2023, in part because there’s a bit of a lag between the peak El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and their effect on global temperatures,” says at US non-profit Berkeley Earth. In fact, an unusually strong El Niño could be enough to make 2024 the first year Earth passes 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, according to the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service.
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What does this mean for climate policy? As growing numbers of people experience the effects of cliate change first hand, it will rise to the top of their list of concerns, says at Texas Tech University, chief scientist at US non-profit The Nature Conservancy.
She says one of the primary barriers people face to taking climate action is “psychological distance”. “You ask people ‘Is climate change real?’ and most people say yes, and then you ask people ‘Will it affect you?’ and the numbers plummet. That is psychological distance,” she says.
That barrier is being “dismantled” by the extreme weather that has already occurred in 2023, says Hayhoe. “Who in the world has not breathed wildfire smoke, or experienced overwhelming heat, or record-breaking floods, or knows people or has been to or used to live in places that have?”
at the University of Reading, UK, feels similarly. “We often talk about global temperature change, which no one directly experiences,” he says. “But when you live through an extreme weather event, which is being made worse by climate change, then maybe that will help people realise that these are the consequences we’re going to face. And these consequences are only going to get worse.”
Focusing public attention on these “acute” weather events can be a useful way of driving wider engagement with the climate crisis – and convincing those in power to take tougher action to cut emissions, says Hausfather.
But it also comes with risks. When El Niño fades and weather patterns fall back into something resembling “normal”, people’s anxiety about climate change is likely to diminish, warns Hayhoe. “We have the attention span of a cat chasing a laser,” she says. “Psychologically, we are completely unsuited to cope with long-term, steadily increasing problems.”
That could lead to a crash in public – and therefore policy-maker – interest in climate matters during the mid-2020s, when science suggests we should be doubling down on emissions cuts.
Raising the alarm too forcefully right now, including suggesting that Earth has reached some sort of doomsday “tipping point” of no return, could make this potential slump in urgency even more damaging. Last month, the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, was criticised by some for declaring that “the era of global boiling has arrived”, a term without a clear scientific meaning.
“I appreciate the secretary general’s effort to create a sense of urgency — that is needed,” says Mann. But extreme rhetoric can backfire, he says. “Does ‘global boiling’ cross that line? I’m not sure, but it’s certainly moving in that direction.”
As a warning, Hausfather points to the previous El Niño event in 2015 to 2016, which was one of the strongest on record and resulted in record-breaking global temperatures. When the planet returned to a La Niña state and the wild weather subsided,. The same could happen again after 2024, says Hausfather. “I do think we need to be a little cautious in over-interpreting the role of El Niño as the new normal.”
Mann has similar concerns, warning that “doomism” in the face of extreme weather this year undermines the integrity of climate science and empowers those who argue we should do nothing to combat climate change.
“Doomism — the false notion that there’s nothing we can do — has become nearly as great a threat as denial,” he says. “It is no more valid to equate the extra warmth from El Niño with ‘acceleration’ of global warming then it was for climate deniers to claim that global warming had stopped in the 00s and early 10s because of an extended La Niña.”
So no, this isn’t the apocalypse – but as has always been the case, we do need to take action. “The truth is bad enough,” says Mann. “No need to squander credibility by exaggerating things.”
This story is part of a series in which we explore the most pressing questions about climate change. Read the other articles below:
What made July the hottest month ever? |Is climate change really accelerating? |The pace of the renewable energy revolution | Can humans adapt to heat? | Fight doomism and denial | Climate change and extreme weather
