WHAT a year. At the start of 2022, many were hoping for a return to normality as vaccines allowed countries to end covid-19 measures. Instead, Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering or exacerbating many other global crises in addition to the terrible things happening in Ukraine itself.
Russia attempted to blackmail Europe by withholding gas, sending energy prices soaring. It also prevented the export of grain and sunflower oil from Ukraine’s ports, sharply hiking food prices. Along with the supply chain disruptions resulting from the pandemic – and from Brexit in the UK – this led to the cost-of-living crisis that is affecting people all around the world, making it hard for many to afford food and heating.
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As leaders struggled to deal with this interlinked polycrisis, the headline-grabbing promises made in 2021 at the COP26 climate summit in the UK were quickly forgotten. Instead of the agreed phasing down of coal, there was a coal comeback as countries scrambled to find alternatives to Russian oil and gas.
Yet this year, the reasons why it is so vital to limit global warming became more obvious than ever. There were many record-breaking droughts and heatwaves across the world (Extreme drought in 2022 exposed fragility of Europe’s energy system), with China enduring by far the most extreme heatwave ever recorded, the UK hitting 40°C (104°F) for the first time and even Antarctica having extreme heat, relatively speaking (The Arctic and Antarctic saw record warmth and ice melt in 2022).
There were also major storms and flooding. In Pakistan, floods killed 1700, with the damage estimated at a staggering $30 billion. Demands for the high-income countries responsible for most global warming to pay compensation to nations like Pakistan hit by climate-related disasters finally resulted in a fund being established at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last month, but the donations so far are minuscule.
There was little progress on other issues either (This year’s COP27 set up a major battle for next year’s climate summit). On the contrary, it is becoming ever clearer that the world will pass the 1.5°C “limit” sometime in the 2030s – and that the consequences could be even more severe than currently forecast.
Meanwhile, as the global population passed the 8 billion mark, the destruction of nature continued apace, with vital rainforests still being cut down across the tropics and coral reefs bleaching once again. Yet instead of strengthening protections for nature, countries such as the UK tried to roll them back.
Then, there is the continuing threat from infectious diseases. This year, mpox (formerly called monkeypox) spread beyond Africa and infected at least , killing dozens. It could have been much worse. The virus variant responsible is seldom lethal and mostly spreads via sex. What’s more, smallpox vaccines and treatments are effective against it. But this outbreak could have been avoided if an mpox vaccine had been developed and rolled out in the countries where the virus is endemic. Much more needs to be done to prevent viruses like this jumping to people – next time, the world might not be so lucky.
Indeed, given the extraordinary happenings of the past few years, it is hard not to wonder what fresh catastrophes 2023 might bring. Yet there are many reasons for a certain optimism, too.
For starters, it looks increasingly likely that, with the help of many other countries, Ukraine will take back all its territory. This victory could lead to Vladimir Putin’s exit and seismic shifts in Russia. While Russians could pay a huge price and such a change poses a risk in a former superpower with lots of nuclear weapons, it could lead to some positive outcomes as well.
A Russian defeat would help deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which would also have many serious global impacts on top of the human cost of conflict. For one thing, Taiwan makes nearly all the advanced chips in our phones and computers. And China produces 70 per cent of all solar panels, so such a war could .
A diminished Russia may reduce its often malign attempts to influence the West, which include resisting climate action and promoting scare stories and . Some in Ukraine are calling for the if it is defeated, which, while unlikely, would make the world a safer place.
Whatever comes to pass, Russia has, ironically, already done more to promote renewable energy than climate activists ever could. Wind and solar have always been the green option. In recent years, they have become the cheap option and now they are being seen as the most secure option, too. That is a combination that fossil fuels can’t beat.
Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency made the biggest ever upwards revision, of more than 30 per cent, to its forecast for renewable energy growth. The agency .
Another major boost for climate action will come from the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark piece of climate legislation passed in the US earlier this year. It provides around $370 billion in funding for reducing emissions.
Russia has, ironically, done more to promote renewable energy than climate activists ever could
In Brazil, meanwhile, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has promised to reverse the destruction of the Amazon rainforest after he becomes president on 1 January.
This year, the James Webb Space Telescope has brought us many stunning images, from the most distant galaxies ever observed to direct images of exoplanets much closer to home (JWST captured the most thrilling and inspiring space images of 2022). The telescope even spotted chemical reactions taking place in the atmosphere of one exoplanet. It is our best hope for spotting signs of life on other worlds.
But for now, Earth is the only planet known to be home to life. We need to redouble our efforts to protect that life. The 1.5°C goal might now be beyond us, but we must fight harder than ever for 1.6°C, and 1.7°C, and every fraction of a degree after that.
