THE situation in India continues to worsen, with more than 20 million cases of covid-19 recorded and health systems overwhelmed. But there is nothing unique about India that means it alone could face such a crisis. Around the world, country after country is being hit by surging coronavirus cases, driven in part by new variants that are harder to control.
The pandemic is accelerating across South America, and cases are rising in many African countries too. In most low and middle-income nations, few people have been vaccinated against the coronavirus, compared with some high-income countries, where high vaccination rates are allowing restrictions to be eased. Add to this the fact that many lower-income countries don’t have the medical capacity to deal with a huge new wave, and you have a catastrophe in the making.
There has been much discussion of vaccination in relation to easing India’s plight. One thing we can say, though, is that vaccines alone won’t halt a surge in cases. Chile saw case numbers soar even as it vaccinated nearly half of its population, for instance. In Israel and England, vaccination has been used as a way out of lockdown, with the lockdowns used as the main way to control surging case numbers.
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So far, only one country has managed to vaccinate its way out of a potential new wave of covid-19. In the US, the vaccine roll-out appears to have been ramped up in time to curb a surge due to the B.1.1.7 variant imported from the UK.
The issue is that to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, the majority of a population needs to be fully immunised with a highly effective vaccine. That takes time even with ample vaccine supplies, and India has neither time nor vaccine supplies on its side. In the meantime, another national lockdown, however difficult, seems necessary.
The crisis in India is a warning. Until many more countries have been able to vaccinate most of their populations, what has happened in India could occur elsewhere if rising case numbers are ignored. Those countries must plan for the worst and the global community must be ready to help.
