PROFILE: The Mexican diplomat and former foreign minister Patricia Espinosa is executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Adam Vaughan: The UN recently issued a report finding that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will be only 0.5 per cent below 2010 levels, way off what is needed to hold global warming below 1.5°C. How did you feel reading that?
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Patricia Espinosa: It was very bad news. It confirmed the bad scenario we had been talking about, that we really are in a climate emergency. I feared we would have bad news, so in that sense it was not really a surprise. But this report is very helpful because it illustrates how grave the situation is, how difficult it is and how much urgency we need to impress in decision-making and in actions.
You have said that some countries’ long-term net-zero emissions goals are reasons for optimism. But there is a big disconnect between those targets and short-term ones, isn’t there?
This is a big challenge now. This is precisely why we are stressing the need to review the NDCs [nationally determined contributions, or national climate plans] and see if we can increase ambition. I hope they can help us in giving this push to a higher level of ambition. For many businesses, and many different actors in society, it has become clear this is really about survival.
Have any governments heeded your call to submit new versions of existing national plans?
I’ve been talking with all of them without interruption. [The UN report] is not pointing fingers at anyone, but just reminding everyone there is a collective obligation.
What does the COP26 summit later this year need to achieve to be a success?
COP26 is a credibility test for the fight against climate change. Look at the less than 1 per cent reduction [in projected 2030 carbon dioxide emissions] and look at how we need to be at a 45 per cent reduction in only 10 years. Decisions need to be made now. This transformation of societies into low-carbon economies will take time. Every decision about investments needs to go through the lens of climate risk. The sense of urgency needs to be at the centre of attention of all political leadership – and not only politicians, but also the private sector and individuals.
How can we ensure it is a success?
Finance is critical. We have spent 10 years talking about $100 billion [to help lower-income countries fight climate change] and yet in one year we are seeing $12 trillion mobilised for covid. That doesn’t make much sense. The financing for others is not just about helping others, it’s us addressing our existential threat.
The UK has controversially cut its overseas aid budget. What impact does that have?
In general, what we are seeing in the world is that inequalities are a source of tensions, stress and, in many cases, conflict. I come from a country that has a very big challenge in terms of inequalities. That is a reality we need to address. Support for other countries needs to be seen as really supporting our own self-interest.
Are the geopolitics for climate change action getting worse or better?
Since September, we have been seeing signals that point to a more positive environment regarding climate change. China committing to carbon neutrality before 2060 is really something that just a year ago we would not have thought would happen. The immediately after the new administration took over, that’s a very important signal. The UK’s very ambitious goals as well. All these are positive signals.
The pandemic has stopped young people, such as Greta Thunberg and the Fridays for Future movement, protesting in the streets. Has that made your job harder?
I think they are still very visible, but in this virtual world. It is very worrying to see the level of stress climate change has brought on young people. People are asking themselves, “Do I want to have a family?” It also raises questions about the values of our society. When I was young, having a car was, “Wow, you finally got your car”. Now the thing is precisely not to have a car.
Can you do the diplomacy you need ahead of COP26 during a pandemic, through virtual meetings?
We are struggling with that. It is a big, big change. The point I would make is we have no choice. We need to adapt to this reality.
What do you think of the fact that the UK’s senior leadership team for COP26 is all male?
We have a commitment to make the process as inclusive as possible, including that delegations should support the participation of women. Globally, we have a very big challenge in making this inclusiveness be part of our everyday life at every level. I know the UK team has also heard this message very clearly.
The first of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s new reports on the science of climate change is due in August. How do you see that influencing the COP26 climate talks?
We are looking at not a very positive, not a very encouraging, report. Looking at what is on the table now and the data available, I think the IPCC won’t be able to bring us very good news. In that regard, I hope it will help us by impressing the sense of urgency for decision-making. If I was a leader and saw this report, my reaction would be we really need to get our act together.
Given the anticipated findings of the IPCC and your recent report, is it time to admit that the 1.5°C goal is out of reach?
Science is telling us that we can still turn this around. What we have seen in terms of transformations in the last two years is unprecedented. If we think about the way solar energy has evolved, and other types of renewable energies have evolved, the way people were able to adapt to a completely new reality out of the pandemic in such a short time, I think we can be hopeful.
