Google says it has reached a milestone known as quantum supremacy, here are the quantum computing milestones that led to this point.
1980 – Paul Benioff describes the first quantum mechanical model of a computer, showing that quantum computers are theoretically possible.
1985 – David Deutsch develops the idea of a universal quantum computer: a way to mathematically understand what is possible on a quantum computer.
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1994 – Peter Shor develops “Shor’s algorithm”, which would allow a quantum computer to factor large numbers much faster than the best classical algorithm.
1995 – Several researchers independently propose the first quantum error-correction methods to automatically fix errors that can easily arise in a quantum computer.
1997 – Quantum teleportation, the transmission of quantum information from one place to another, is first demonstrated for single photons.
1998 – Researchers at the University of Oxford run a quantum algorithm for the first time, on a 2-qubit quantum computer.
2001 – A team at IBM and Stanford University use Shor’s algorithm on a 7-qubit quantum computer, made from billions of molecules in a test tube, to find the factors of 15.
2009 – The first electronic quantum processor is built. The 2-qubit superconducting chip is made from more than a billion aluminium atoms in a superconducting electronic circuit.
2012 – John Preskill coins the term “quantum supremacy” to describe the potential ability of quantum computers to solve problems that classical computers can’t.
2013 – Google, NASA and the US Universities Space Research Association announce the launch of a Quantum Artificial Intelligence Lab.
2019 January – IBM unveils its first commercial quantum computer, the 20-qubit Q System One.
2019 October – Google says its quantum computer took 200 seconds to complete a task that would take our most powerful computer 10,000 years, achieving quantum supremacy.
2019 October – IBM claims Google hasn’t yet reached quantum supremacy because a powerful computer would take 2.5 days not 10,000 years to accomplish the task Sycamore managed.
…and now91av ’s best guess on what happens next
2020s – Different types of quantum computers, for example those made with trapped ions or spin qubits (see “Google’s qubit rivals: The race to useful quantum computers has begun“), will achieve quantum supremacy.
mid 2020s – Error-correction algorithms will create quantum computers that are more stable and can perform calculations for longer periods of time.
2030s – Quantum computers start to be used in the same way that powerful computers are now, finding uses in chemistry, materials science, drug design and financial services.
2040s – By now, quantum computers contain millions of qubits, which would allow them to break much of the encryption currently used to secure the internet.
2050s – Quantum computing starts to affect daily life. Some apps offload part of their processing to quantum computers in the cloud.
2100 – Bespoke quantum computing chips are integrated into our devices. Who knows what we will use them for, but we will surely think of something.
