Several countries could have made the nerve agent used in the chemical attack on Russians Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury, UK, weapons experts have told 91av.
British Prime Minister Theresa May says that because it was Russia that developed Novichok agents, it is 鈥渉ighly likely鈥� that . But other countries legally created Novichok for testing purposes after its existence was revealed in 1992, and a production method has even been published.
Science could reveal where the weapon came from, but it would require Russia to declare any Novichok stocks or production it has, and to give inspectors access to it, which it has never done.
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Spotlight on Russia
This week, inspectors from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) are in England investigating the chemical attack, on 4 March, on two Russians in Salisbury.
Sergei and Yulia Skripal, and a policeman who found them unconscious in a shopping centre, remain in critical condition due to what the British Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down says was a 鈥淣ovichok鈥� nerve agent.
Novichoks are a class of highly toxic chemicals developed in the 1980s in the then-Soviet Union. Peter Wilson, UK delegate to the OPCW, that Russia was a suspect because it has produced Novichok and 鈥減robably still could鈥�, and has a record of state-sponsored assassinations.
Russia does have a history of using poison on enemies, but it is not the only conceivable source of Novichoks. And while using it this way contravenes the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the treaty does not ban Novichoks by name, making verification difficult.
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Vil Mirzayanov, a scientist with the Soviet chemical weapons programme, revealed in 1992 that it had developed a new class of nerve agents that worked like the older agents VX or sarin, but had chemical differences that made them up to eight times more toxic.
Moreover, while the precursors used to make VX and sarin are themselves banned by the CWC, Novichoks can be made from chemicals permitted for other industrial uses, in normal chemical plants. They are also binary, making them easier to handle: two harmless precursors can be mixed at the last minute to make the poison.
Mirzayanov鈥檚 revelation came only weeks after the CWC negotiations ended. Treaty members feared that re-opening the treaty鈥檚 list of banned chemicals to insert the Novichoks would just publicise them to the many countries that hadn鈥檛 signed yet, says , a chemical weapons consultant.
So Novichoks are not listed by the CWC, but they are illegal: the CWC makes any toxic chemical used to harm people illegal. But verification of what a country has by the OPCW depends on what it declares, and Russia insists only listed chemicals must be declared. It has rejected pressure to declare Novichoks.
, professor of environmental toxicology 鈥媋t the University of Leeds, says he hopes Novichoks will now be listed in the CWC.鈥�
Revealing the truth
鈥淣ovichoks were only produced in any sizeable quantities in the Soviet Union,鈥� says Zanders. But after Mirzayanov鈥檚 revelations, Western defence labs made small amounts 鈥� legal under the treaty, partly so the agents can be identified in situations like Salisbury. In 2016, Iranian chemists even聽.
Ralf Trapp, a chemical weapons consultant formerly with the OPCW, says the inspectors can tell where molecules sampled in Salisbury came from, if they have reference samples for the ingredients used by the factory. 鈥淚 doubt they have reference chemicals for forensic analysis related to Russian CW agents,鈥� says Trapp. 鈥淏ut if Russia has nothing to hide they may let inspectors in.鈥�
