The poisoning of a former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter Yulia in the UK was not subtle. A lethal nerve agent contaminated very public parts of the city of Salisbury. The first police officer to attend the scene also fell seriously ill, and 20 other people were affected. The perpetrators left their chemical fingerprints all over the place.
To echo what was said by Richard Guthrie, formerly of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, this was an overt expression of power to show that the perpetrator could carry out such an attack and to put fear into others. Covert options were clearly rejected.
It’s a far cry from the cold war. In 1978, Bulgarian dissident Geogi Markov was jabbed in the leg with an umbrella while crossing Waterloo Bridge in London. He became feverish and died four days later, but managed to tell doctors he had been the target of an assassin. The autopsy found a tiny pellet filled with toxic ricin embedded in his leg, which might easily have been missed.
Advertisement
In the same period, the , a potent neurotoxin made by shellfish that produces symptoms similar to a heart attack. The victim would seem to die a natural death.
Calling card
It appears that agencies are now choosing substances that make killings obvious. In 2006, former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko was murdered with radioactive polonium. This clearly indicated state involvement, and a UK government inquiry found Russia was responsible, suggesting the assassination was .
In 2017, assassins killed Kim Jong-nam, half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, at Kuala Lumpur airport by wiping VX nerve agent on his face. Again, the method signposted that intelligence agencies, not criminals, were behind the murder.
The Skripals were poisoned with a Novichok agent, developed in Russia in the 1970s to bypass defensive measures against previous agents. The country is the only known source of Novichok.
Its use is like a calling card. As Andy Oppenheimer, counter-terrorism analyst and editor of Chemical, Biological & Nuclear Warfare magazine, says: “It’s a way of saying, ‘This is what we can do’.”
Focus on deterrence
The Skirpals are alive, although in a critical condition. This fact may not be important to those who ordered the attack. Like gangsters dumping the mutilated body of an informer in the town square, the perpetrators have highlighted their capacity to kill anyone who displeases them. Publicity is more important than lethality when spreading fear.
Such blatant attacks, which may kill or injure many others besides the intended victim, will continue if states can get away with them. Robust counter-measures are needed – the government has announced a welcome defence laboratory. But deterrence is more important.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced the UK’s response, . Russian intelligence agencies may see this as a rather low price to pay and plan their next operation accordingly. Stronger measures may be needed to discourage further bouts of state-sponsored chemical terrorism.
