“The UK is running out of gas,” some headlines screamed this morning. With the country currently in the grip of snow, ice and blizzards, this conjures up visions of the movie The Day After Tomorrow, in which people freeze to death during a cold snap brought about by global warming.
The truth is rather more mundane: high demand for gas means some industrial customers may be forced to use less than they would like, but there is no risk to household heating.
The UK National Grid is of around 400 million cubic metres today, which is 100 mcm more than usual for this time of year. In the morning it forecast a shortfall of nearly 50 mcm and issued a warning, but by 1 pm the projected deficit was down to less than 15 mcm.
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There are several reasons for the shortfall. Unsurprisingly, one is that demand for gas for heating is much higher than usual across Europe thanks to extreme cold brought by the “Beast from the East”. There have also been technical problems at some gas processing plants and pipelines, including at the Sandy Hook LNG terminal near Milford Haven, where liquefied natural gas arrives by ship.
The extreme weather is making it more difficult to repair these faults, says Stuart Elliott, a . If the situation continues throughout the day some industrial users – such as ceramics, plastic and paper factories – may be asked to use less gas, but this had not happened as of this morning. Household users should not be affected at all.
All over by next week
There could be another deficit on Friday as well, Elliott says, but demand should drop on the weekend when factories are closed and temperatures are forecast to rise. Everything should be back to normal next week.
The situation has caused the market price of gas to hit a 12-year high. “That’s pretty dramatic,” says Elliott. But this spike should not affect the price households pay for gas, at least in the near future.
The UK is now vulnerable to gas shortages because its largest gas storage facility closed last year. It was deemed uneconomical to keep repairing the ageing, leak-prone Rough facility off the Yorkshire coast, and it has not been replaced.
At the same time, the UK remains heavily reliant on natural gas for heating homes. If it is to meet its target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, the country will either have to get households to switch to other forms of heating or replace natural gas by generating gas from wastes or from electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources.
Most UK homes are also poorly insulated, greatly increasing the need for heating. Tackling these issues will take decades and the government has not yet even begun to do so.
