PRIME MINISTER Theresa May has said she will trigger Article 50 of the European Constitution before next April to begin the UK’s exit from the European Union. This will set a two-year clock ticking for talks to finalise withdrawal.
Has she got it right? While we can try to answer that question in many ways, applying game theory is science’s best bet. This mathematical construction of human behaviour tries to predict how those on opposing sides in strategic settings will act to maximise the chance of achieving their goals.
Who, what, when?
Three key inputs are needed: who’s playing, what the goals are, and when decisions can be made.
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As far as the who goes, this is not merely about a British government interacting with a single European block. Instead, individual politicians of all 28 EU nations are motivated by their own domestic concerns. UK parliamentary elections are due in May 2020; across the English Channel, .
When it comes to goals, on the UK side, there are conflicting priorities: restricting the movement of people .
As the referendum campaign almost exclusively revolved around migration and xenophobia, May’s mission consists of finding an optimal deal with a face-saving agreement on immigration, and at the same time preserving tariff-free trade that is so vital to the UK’s economy. The votes of Bremainers may be vital to her re-election ambitions in 2020, with many of them in sectors at risk if tough trade barriers go up.
For the EU, free trade without freedom of movement has been a red line, and it also wants to by ensuring an economic cost to leaving.
All in the timing
Plug these factors into the equation and it looks like an insoluble stand-off. What about the when factor? Delaying has always been the strongest part of the UK’s strategy to raise hopes of an optimal deal.
Game theorists Antonio Merlo and Charles Wilson pioneered the study of delaying tactics in negotiations in 1995 (), concluding that they can be potent in the right circumstances. Everything suggests that this is applicable here. Invoking Article 50 too soon puts the UK in a weak position, because Europe needs to adopt a hard stance in the face of the threat of rising right-wing extremism.
In mid-2019, European parliamentary elections will take place and EU budgets will be decided by the Commission. The UK still has a veto over the budget, and 10 per cent of the European Parliament is still occupied by UK MEPs. Still being “in” Europe at that point would have earned the UK significant leverage in Brexit negotiations.
There is also the chance that positions in Germany and France will soften after elections in both countries in 2017, as the need fades to impress .
Invoking Article 50 will ideally have been done no sooner than May 2017 to retain influence in EU elections and budget-setting and to have been close enough to the German and French elections to ensure they are settled before the real talks begin.
Will her announcement on Sunday damage hopes of an optimal deal for the UK? That remains to be seen. But given the promise to pull the plug within six months, at the very least it makes sense for her to wait until the final moment.
Petros Sekeris is a game theorist at Montpellier Business School, France
Article amended on 3 October 2016
This article has been updated to reflect Theresa May’s announcement on Article 50 on Sunday.
