AS PRICES rise, tempers fray. The US drought has pushed up global food prices and is likely to continue to do so. Some say riots and unrest may follow.
The drought has crippled US farms: the Department of Agriculture says . As a result, the of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization rose 6 per cent in July, to 213.
That is dangerously high, says of the New England Complex Systems Institute in Massachusetts. He has found that if the FPI goes above 210, riots and unrest become more likely around the world. Both the 2011 Arab Spring and the 2008 riots in places such as Mexico, India, Russia and Belgium may have been partly triggered by high food prices.
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More unrest is likely in the next year, although we cannot predict where, says Bar-Yam. That depends on how governments respond.