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PREDICTING the future is a tricky business, yet scientists and economists keep publishing books that confidently tell us what will happen next year, or 50 years from now. These “experts”, says journalist Dan Gardner, have an appalling record for accuracy, but that doesn’t seem to bother them, or their eager readers, one bit.

One target in this book is Paul Ehrlich, who published in 1968, forecasting famines in the 1970s as overpopulation swamped food supplies. It didn’t happen, but Ehrlich built on his success, wrote more bestsellers and even now says he was essentially correct.

Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books: we cannot tolerate uncertainty, and demand to know what’s in store. Supply follows demand and the predictions never stop.