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NASSIM TALEB is a trader and a specialist in uncertainty. His central point – that our lives are defined by improbable events that we could never predict – should make a lot of people uncomfortable, not least those whose stock in trade is imagining they are good at predicting things (most politicians and economists). A glance at history should tell us that the events that really mattered – stock market crashes, 9/11, the development of the internet – came from nowhere: they were “black swans” that no amount of white swans could have prepared us for. Taleb makes a convincing case. The take-home message? Worry more about crossing the road than whether to buy terrorism insurance.