GREATER efforts are needed to measure the impact of war on civilians. That’s the opinion of researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, who last week revealed that there have been between 400,000 and 950,000 “excess” deaths in Iraq since the start of the US-led invasion in 2003. Previous estimates based on hospital or military reports had put the number at less than 100,000.
Gil Burnham and colleagues interviewed nearly 13,000 people in 1849 households in Iraq, and found that death rates have climbed steadily since 2003, this year reaching four times the pre-war level. Most of the “excess” deaths were from gunshots or car bombs (The Lancet, DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9).
“Death rates in Iraq have climbed steadily since the US-led invasion in 2003”
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An international body is urgently needed to monitor compliance with the Geneva Conventions, which prohibit attacks on non-combatants, the researchers conclude. “If you’re going to improve protection, you have to start with the data,” says Burnham. “But first, you have to work out how to get the information without being shot.” He hopes aid groups will work together to better measure the impact of conflict on civilians.
Promoting the Geneva Conventions is one of the jobs of the International Committee of the Red Cross. “We remind governments of their obligations,” an ICRC spokesperson said. But “we never do counts of victims”. The ICRC also provides medical aid and visits detainees, so it needs to safeguard its access to war zones.