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THE North Pole isn’t melting after all, says a researcher in Sweden. Recent
reports that ice in the Arctic is rapidly disappearing have been taken as
graphic proof of global warming. But a more extensive study now shows the ice
hasn’t thinned at all since the late 1980s.

Peter Winsor from the University of Gothenburg in Sweden looked at data from
1986 to 1997 showing sea ice thickness throughout the Arctic. The data had been
collected by submarines cruising under the ice and firing sonar pulses upwards
to determine its thickness. After adjusting the data to account for seasonal
differences, he found the volume of ice in the Arctic had stayed nearly
constant.

This contradicts a major study in 1999, which found that the thickness of
Arctic sea ice had decreased by a startling 1.3 metres since 1958—more
than a third of its current thickness—and continues to drop by 0.1 metres
per year. Winsor says his results differ simply because they’re based on more
data.

“Recent reports of the demise of the Arctic ice cover have likely been
greatly exaggerated,” says Bill Hibler from the International Arctic Research
Center in Fairbanks, Alaska. “It’s probably a lot tougher than many recent
reports suggest.” Winsor says his study doesn’t mean the planet isn’t heating
up. But it does point to flaws in climate models which predict that Arctic ice
will be drastically affected by global warming.