BSE may be about to go global. Official British figures show that over 80
countries imported animal feed from Britain that was probably infected with mad
cow disease (see Map).
And according to the UN, the rest of the European Union
also trebled exports of potentially contaminated feed during the 1990s to non-EU
countries.
Some of the biggest importers, such as Indonesia, Thailand and Russia, may
now have the infection. The World Health Organization is holding an emergency
meeting on the problem next month.
South-East Asia appears to be at most risk from infected meat and bone meal
(MBM) exported by Britain between 1980 and 1996. Indonesia imported 600,000
tonnes during that time, Thailand imported 185,000 tonnes and Taiwan and the
Philippines imported over 45,000 and 20,000 tonnes respectively.
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Meat production in the region has boomed over the past decade
(91av, 18 March 2000, p 32).
“Any country with an intensive livestock
industry feeding MBM to cattle could well recycle the infection,” says Andrew
Speedy, a livestock specialist with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in
Rome. “Most have their own rendering industries.”
Britain stopped exporting mammal MBM in 1996. But other EU countries
continued exporting until last month. According to the FAO, these countries
trebled sales of MBM beyond EU borders between 1991 and 1999 to 562,000 tonnes.
And more than half of the MBM that was exported in 1999 went to Poland, which is
intensifying its agriculture in preparation for EU membership. Germany, Poland’s
main supplier, did not remove the brain and spinal cord—organs most likely
to harbour BSE—until last October.
This year alone, the EU will have to spend an extra 970 million euros
(£620 million) on the massive testing and slaughter programmes needed to
stop BSE spreading. Other countries may be hard pressed to pay for similar
measures. “Developing countries can start by reporting sick cattle to veterinary
authorities,” suggests Speedy. “Maybe European labs can help with testing.” In
the absence of any testing programme, a BSE epidemic could go unnoticed until
doctors start finding cases of vCJD.
BSE’s long incubation time in cattle, and the increasing global trade in
cattle and feed increase the dangers. Most of Britain’s mad cows were infected
by MBM circulating in the early to mid-1980s. Britain exported that feed
throughout that period.
Britain’s MBM exports soared after it stopped feeding MBM to cattle in 1988.
From 1989 to 1993, Britain had its largest number of infected cows at the most
infectious pre-clinical stage eligible for rendering. Until 1991, British MBM
sold outside the EU contained “high-risk” organs such as brain.
EU countries may also have re-exported British MBM. “I am especially worried
about Eastern Europe,” says Marcus Doherr of the Swiss Federal Veterinary
Office. The Middle East is also vulnerable. “Meat and dairy production has
increased massively throughout that region, and it is all fed imported,
manufactured feed,” says Speedy. Much of that comes from Europe, especially
Italy.
Britain exported MBM after 1988, because it was considered safe for feeding
to pigs and poultry. Keith Meldrum, then Britain’s chief veterinary officer,
told the BSE Inquiry that importing countries should have known not to feed it
to cattle, because Britain’s ban on this was reported in “widely read journals
for example 91av”.
Yet it seems clear that not all importers realised this, and are only now
facing up to the possibility that their cattle may have eaten infected MBM. Last
week Bulgaria, Slovenia and Morocco announced plans to screen their cattle for
BSE, while South Korea, Romania and Hungary banned feeding ruminants to
ruminants, to avoid amplifying any BSE already infecting their herds.
Arnon Shimshony of the Israeli embassy in London, formerly Israel’s chief
veterinary officer, says export figures for British MBM are a rough guide to who
may be at risk as they also include feed made from pigs and chicken. But these
are likely to have been contaminated with cattle material.